Modeling and Dynamical System of Iraq’s Population Based on Census 2024 and Projections for Future

Abstract

Iraq is a significant nation in the geographical region referred to as the Middle East and ranks as the 35th most populous country. Given the concerning pace of population expansion, comprehending the expected demographic shifts is essential for effective national development planning. This analysis is based on the projection of the nation's future population growth. The Verhulst logistic population model, a non-linear, non-autonomous ordinary differential equation, is employed to evaluate the population census data for Iraq from 1987 to 2024, considering the nation's maximum environmental capacity. By the year 2274, Iraq is projected to attain its carrying capacity of 136 million inhabitants within the following 250 years. This article examines the evolving trends in Iraq's population growth.